The airline industry is bracing for continued turbulence as supply chain disruptions are expected to constrain growth and raise costs through 2025, according to the latest outlook from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The organisation’s analysis reveals a range of challenges that are straining global operations and hindering progress in critical areas.
One major concern is the aging of the global aircraft fleet, which now averages 14.8 years – the highest on record and a significant increase from the long-term average of 13.6 years observed between 1990 and 2024. At the same time, aircraft deliveries have plummeted. In 2024, only 1,254 new planes are expected to be delivered, representing a 30% shortfall compared to forecasts made earlier this year. Although deliveries are anticipated to recover slightly in 2025, with 1,802 planes projected, this figure remains far below the previously anticipated 2,293 units, and further downward revisions are likely.
Adding to the pressure is the mounting backlog of unfulfilled aircraft orders, which has reached a record 17,000. At the current delivery rate, it would take 14 years to clear this backlog – more than double the six-year average seen from 2013 to 2019. While delivery rates are expected to improve, shortening wait times in the future, the sheer scale of the current backlog underscores the depth of the supply chain crisis.
Grounded aircraft further illustrate the industry’s woes. As of December 2024, approximately 14% of the global fleet, or 5,000 planes, remain parked, including those awaiting engine inspections. While this figure marks some improvement, it is still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, when only 10% of the fleet was idle. Among the grounded planes, 700 are sidelined for engine-related issues, a problem that is unlikely to abate before the end of 2025.
Operational performance is also being affected. Fuel efficiency, for example, has stagnated. Between 2023 and 2024, the industry saw no improvement in fuel consumption, which remained at 0.23 liters per 100 available tonne kilometres (ATK). This stagnation represents a notable step back from the long-term trend of annual efficiency gains in the range of 1.5% to 2%.
Finally, soaring demand for leased aircraft is creating additional financial strain. Lease rates for narrow-body aircraft are now 20-30% higher than in 2019, reflecting intense competition for available resources.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “Supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs, and environmental performance. Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile, the aging fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel, and takes more capital to keep it flying.
“And, on top of this, leasing rates have risen more than interest rates as competition among airlines intensified the scramble to find every way possible to expand capacity. This is a time when airlines need to be fixing their battered post-pandemic balance sheets, but progress is effectively capped by supply chain issues that manufacturers need to resolve.”
Walsh added: “The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the practicality of actually getting there, airlines are left bearing the biggest burden.
“The supply chain issues are a case in point. Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air.”
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