The International Air Transport Association (IATA) anticipates improved airline profitability for 2025 and resilience in the face of continued global economic and political shifts. However, its projections represent a fall in net profits on its previous released numbers, but margins are expected to increase.
In an update to its 2025 airline industry financial outlook, released at its AGM in New Delhi, India, IATA predicted industry net profits of USD36.0 billion, improved from the USD32.4 billion earned in 2024. This is slightly down on the previously projected USD36.6 billion (Dec-2024).
The projected net profit margin at 3.7% is an improvement from the 3.4% earned in 2024 and up 0.1pp on the previously projected 3.6%. Return on invested capital at 6.7%, is also an improvement from the 6.6% earned in 2024, but largely unchanged from previous projections.
Operating profits at USD66.0 billion, are also an improvement from an estimated USD61.9 billion in 2024, but down from the previously projected USD67.5 billion.
The standout projection though is that the industry will not exceed the anticipated USD1 trillion revenues, albeit will still hit record annual levels. Total revenues are projected to reach USD979 billion (+1.3% on 2024). Total expenses will hit USD913 billion (+1.0% on 2024, but below the previously projected USD940 billion).
Total traveller numbers will also reach a record high but will again miss a key milestone. An anticipated 4% rise over 2024 will bring annual passenger traffic to 4.99 billion for 2025, a revision from the 5.22 billion projection from the end of 2024.
Total air cargo volumes will follow the same trend reaching 69 million tonnes, up 0.6% on 2024, but below the previously projected 72.5 million tonnes.